Eerie Similarities to 2008-2009?

Investors in October, 2009 have eerie echoes of the 1930 stock market rally nagging at the back of their minds. Yet they must still be tempted by the massive move up in equities since the March, 2009 lows.  The traditional American urge to invest – not to gamble, but to take solid, speculative risks in expectation of reasonable reward – persists in spite of the often unjustified punishments dished out by Wall Street and government in equal measure.  The decaying job market notwithstanding, there is still investment capital in the West searching for a home.  Searching for the prospect of honest, reasonable returns in a market seemingly determined to punish investors and reward gimmicks.  

The events of 2008 have given that capital every reason to stay on the sidelines. Yet the alternative of investing or starting a business overseas is daunting to the novice investor, small businessman, or salaried employee. They intuitively understand the need to get out from the red tape that the mature Western economies drown them in, but the leap to more favorable business climates on foreign shores is still very large.

AsiaLynx.com was launched to give Americans and other English-speaking readers a chance to view the business climate in Asia in greater depth that is often afforded by the mainstream media.  We will look for and bring you the slightly offbeat stories – the indicators of the real health of the global economy and the trends in trade, commerce, and employment.  Stories such as “Young Americans Going To China For Jobs” and “China’s super-rich only second to US” are treated as novelty tidbits by the American business media, but we think they point to a very real trend – the world’s center of economic gravity is shifting irrevocably toward Asia.  No doubt, young people in Europe in the early part of this century were scoffed at by their elders when they departed for the United States seeking new opportunities – the scoffing of American elders at their small but growing number of Asia-bound children will doubtless be even greater today.

Yet the United States is at a critical crossroads – its welfare state and military machine having expanded over the last four decades to unsustainable levels. Hard choices will have to be made: on pensions, job creation, tax policy, foreign intervention and scientific advancement. So far, the leaders of both major American political parties have signaled that they will maintain and expand the welfare state (“welfare”, it is clear, includes the fiscal health of the investment and money center banks), no matter what sacrifices have to be made in other areas.

Asia’s great opportunity has thus arrived.

Keep checking back with AsiaLynx.com as we attempt to chart the progress of the Great Shift Eastward. Whatever develops, it is going to be an interesting ride.

Randal Rayborn